The odds came out last week for the first coach to leave their position in 2020/2021. It’s pretty interesting phrasing because this covers both firings and the coaches that could end up leaving their team. While a coach leaving midseason isn’t ever likely in the NFL, is it that crazy to think in this year of COVID-19 that an older coach like Vic Fangio might just decide to hang up the proverbial cleats and get back home to safety with his family? These are football guys, so maybe it is crazy, but I think it’s at least possible. Here are my five best bets for the first coach most likely to be gone this year.
#1: Dan Quinn +1000
I have no idea how Dan Quinn even kept his job after last season. The Falcons have gone 7-9 each of the last two seasons, but had to win six of their last eight games in 2019 to even reach that below average mark. This is a team that has looked lost since their Super Bowl appearance a few years ago, and their defense under a coach who is known for his defensive skills has been subpar. Matt Ryan said on Barstool’s Pardon My Take podcast that he thinks he’s the best quarterback in the division right now. If that doesn’t prove to be true and this team struggles early, it’ll likely mean a quick exit for Quinn.
#2: Matt Nagy +2500
These are great odds for Matt Nagy. He had a very successful season with the Bears in his first year in Chicago when the team finished 12-4 and Mitchell Trubisky looked like an above average quarterback. The Bears regressed tremendously last year and dropped to 8-8 while Trubisky looked like he wouldn’t have even been worth a fifth round pick. This is a make or break year for Nagy, and if he struggles earlier with either Trubisky or Nick Foles, it might mean an early firing along with it.
#3: Doug Marrone +450
During a closed door meeting, Doug Marrone apparently cried his way into keeping his job at the end of the 2019 season. I don’t know that I see him getting fired early this year because ownership knows that this team they’ve given him is awful. That being said, if other coaches aren’t fired early and Jacksonville wants to get a jump start on the coaching market, then a week 10 or 11 exit for Marrone might be enough to win you this bet.
#4: Adam Gase +550
Jets management seems to love Adam Gase as both a coach and a GM, but if the Jets start out bad this year, he’s going to have a very short leash. Gase made some big moves in the offseason while also isolating the best player on his team (Jamal Adams), so there is a very high potential that everything could come crumbling down around him. Speaking personally, as a Jets fan, I like Gase, but I think this is a pretty solid bet to make some money.
#5: Matt Patricia +350
Matt Patricia’s name is only this low on the list because of the odds. He’s the most likely name to be the first to go, but he also has the smallest payout. Much like Quinn, Patricia’s defensive prowess hasn’t carried over to the Lions in the same way that it did with his former team, the Patriots. I’d expect Patricia to be on a very short leash this year especially if his defense is ranked near the bottom of the league for the third straight season.
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