The MLB season is using a 60 game schedule, and it’s confusing as hell for gamblers. All of the numbers just look wrong, so when Caesars Sportsbook put out their odds this morning for the over/under win totals, I was looking at it and thinking I was going to make a ton of money. Only 37 wins for the Dodgers? Are you kidding? That’s an easy over right there. But then I realized that 37 wins in a 60 game season put the Dodgers at a .616 win percentage which is actually pretty high. Granted, last season, they were at a .683 win percentage after 60 games and ended the season at .654, so the over is probably still a good bet. But, let’s look at where the standings were at last season after 60 games.
Last year, after 60 games, there were just six teams with 34 wins or more. Vegas is predicting five this year. There were 16 teams last year between 27 and 34 wins after 60 games. Vegas is predicting 18. This is going to be harder than I thought!
So here’s what I think. I think that some of the top teams (i.e. Dodgers, Yankees, Astros) will hit their overs with ease as they crush their way into the playoffs. And, I think that some of the bottom teams (i.e. Marlins, Orioles, Giants) will hit their overs as well as they have just 60 games to prove themselves as a team. It’s going to be all of those teams in the middle that are going to be borderline impossible to predict. But I’ll be damned if I don’t try. So let’s do it.
AL East
New York Yankees OVER 37 wins
Tampa Bay Rays OVER 34 wins
Boston Red Sox UNDER 30.5 wins
Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 28.5 wins
Baltimore Orioles OVER 20.5 wins
AL Central
Minnesota Twins OVER 34.5 wins
Cleveland Indians OVER 32 wins
Chicago White Sox UNDER 31.5 wins
Kansas City Royals UNDER 25 wins
Detroit Tigers OVER 21.5 wins
AL West
Houston Astros OVER 34.5 wins
Oakland Athletics UNDER 33.5 wins
Los Angeles Angels OVER 31.5 wins
Texas Rangers OVER 29 wins
Seattle Mariners UNDER 24 wins
NL East
Atlanta Braves UNDER 33 wins
Washington Nationals OVER 32.5 wins
New York Mets OVER 32 wins
Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 31 wins
Miami Marlins OVER 23.5 wins
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds OVER 31.5 wins
Chicago Cubs UNDER 31.5 wins
St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 30.5 wins
Milwaukee Brewers OVER 30.5 wins
Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 25 wins
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 37 wins
Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 31.5 wins
San Diego Padres UNDER 31 wins
Colorado Rockies OVER 27 wins
San Francisco Giants OVER 24.5 wins
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