Duke (-12.5) vs. NC State
Avalanche @ Red Wings under 6.5 goals
Knicks (+10) vs. Rockets
Leap Day Weekend proved to be a curse for the top 25 teams in NCAAM basketball this week. Numbers 2, 6, 7, 10, 12, 20, 21, and 22 all lost to unranked opponents, and number 1 Kansas nearly lost to a 9-20 Kansas State team. I would expect that to regress back to the mean this week, starting with Duke taking on an unranked NC State team. NC State beat Duke in their first meeting of the season in Raleigh by a score of 88-66. The team had a big win against Duke last year too in their first match of the season. However, much like last year’s 94-78 Duke win at home in Durham, I’d expect to see the Blue Devils put up a double digit win over the Wolfpack tonight. Give me Duke -12.5 as my first lock of the evening.
For my second lock of the night, let’s head to the NHL. The Colorado Avalanche head into Little Caesars Arena in Detroit to take on the Red Wings tonight. The Avs are riding a six game winning streak while the Red Wings have won just one game since February 8. This feels like a trap game, but I’m not going to pick the Red Wings to win. Instead, I think that this game is a lock for the under. It’s set at 6.5, and the two teams have combined to score over three goals just once since February 7. This is going to be a defensive, low-scoring battle that feels like a lock for the under.
I’m probably going to hate myself tomorrow morning for riding with the Knicks, but I really like the Knicks +10 tonight. They have the Houston Rockets coming into town two days after the Rockets beat the Celtics in overtime. Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni has already said that he’s going to limit the minutes of Russell Westbrook and James Harden, and he may even sit one or both of them for tonight’s game. I think this game will be closer than it should be, and I’m predicting a Rockets win by seven or eight but not the pivotal ten points projected.
My 2020 Record: 0-0